Weekly Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Shutdown Sows Uncertainty

Mortgage rates have seen a slight dip this week, but the future landscape has become increasingly uncertain.

As of the week ending October 2, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to 6.33% APR, according to data from Zillow provided to NerdWallet. For context, a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

The most significant news this week was the government shutdown that occurred on Wednesday. While this event does not directly impact

mortgage rates

, it will undoubtedly influence the economy, which in turn will affect future rates. The shutdown complicates predictions for mortgage rates as essential economic indicators will be unavailable.

Mortgage lenders rely on various factors, including key economic reports released by the government, to

determine mortgage rates

. This data is also crucial for the Federal Reserve, which plays a significant role in shaping interest rates.

Under normal circumstances, we would be anticipating Friday’s jobs report. Would it confirm the stability suggested by Tuesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics data? Would a strengthening labor market shift the Federal Reserve’s focus back to inflation, which seems to be persistent?

Currently, we lack clarity, and it’s uncertain when we will regain it. The

federal government shutdown

has led to the closure of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning existing data won’t be released, and new data collection has ceased.

If the shutdown continues, future reports could be compromised. Data collection for September’s

Consumer Price Index

is already complete, with a release scheduled for October 15. If the government reopens quickly, those numbers could be published promptly. However, a prolonged shutdown could hinder our ability to assess the economy’s health.

This situation complicates the task for the

Federal Reserve

, which remains operational as it is primarily funded by interest from assets like Treasury bills and mortgage-backed securities. However, the central bankers depend heavily on government data for their decision-making processes, and they are already facing challenges.

“Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a speech on September 23. “Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path.” In simpler terms, reducing rates too aggressively could lead to uncontrolled inflation, while increasing rates might negatively impact the

job market

.

The central bankers’ next meeting is scheduled for October 28, and the absence of data will complicate their ability to assess risks and benefits.

The uncertainty surrounding the

October mortgage rate forecast

is particularly challenging at this time. While fall is not typically seen as the prime homebuying season, it may actually be one of the best times to purchase a home.

Home buyers are already returning to the market. According to data released on September 29 by the National Association of Realtors, monthly pending home sales, which indicate the number of homes under contract, increased by 4% in August after a sluggish period throughout 2025.

Moreover, September’s average mortgage rates were lower, reaching a low point just before the Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut. Although there has been a slight rebound since then, average rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans remain close to the lowest levels seen this year.