Mortgage rates have experienced a decline for the third consecutive week, reflecting a hesitance among businesses to hire new employees.
As of the week ending October 16, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped by 14 basis points, settling at 6.11% APR, according to data from Zillow provided to NerdWallet. For context, a basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Just three weeks prior, the average rate stood at 6.35%, indicating a significant shift in the mortgage landscape.
What’s been moving rates
Throughout this year,
mortgage rates
have been influenced by two opposing economic forces: inflation, which has driven rates up, and inconsistent job creation, which has pulled rates down. For the first seven months of the year, these forces seemed to balance each other out.
However, since early August, the narrative has shifted. A noticeable slowdown in hiring has become a focal point for policymakers, leading to a decrease in mortgage rates.
“The labor market is weak,” stated Christopher Waller, a
Federal Reserve
governor, during an October 10 interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He suggested that the current hiring slump could lead to potential rate cuts by the Fed.
Waller’s position on the Fed’s rate-setting committee means his comments can significantly influence market behavior. Similarly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked in a speech on October 14 in Philadelphia, “In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen.”
In simpler terms, this translates to a clear message: businesses are not hiring sufficiently, and an increase in the unemployment rate may be on the horizon.
The central bank typically lowers the overnight
federal funds rate
when job losses occur, aiming to stimulate hiring by making borrowing more attractive for both businesses and consumers. Following a reduction in the federal funds rate in September, investors largely anticipate further cuts during the upcoming meetings on October 28-29 and December 9-10.
What it means for buyers and refinancers
While the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, its actions can indirectly influence them. The anticipation of additional rate cuts could lead to lower mortgage rates in the coming months.
“With signs of softer economic momentum and a cooling labor market, mortgage rates may drift slightly lower through 2026,” noted Kara Ng, a senior economist for Zillow Home Loans.
Ng anticipates a modest decline in rates, emphasizing that even slight reductions may not significantly improve affordability for home buyers. However, she highlighted that buyers are gaining more negotiating power as homes remain on the market longer, allowing
house hunters
more time to make informed decisions.
For those considering refinancing, lower rates present a valuable opportunity. Homeowners might want to explore a
mortgage refinance
if they can achieve a reduction of half a percentage point or more. This could be particularly appealing for those who secured rates above 7% during the late summer to fall of 2023, as well as in the spring of 2024 and early this year.
