The S&P 500 Index (SPY) is currently up by +0.05%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrials Index (DIA) has increased by +0.12%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) is down by -0.30%. Additionally, December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.03%, while December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.25%.
Today, stock indexes are showing mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrials reaching a 1.5-week high. The broader market is experiencing slight gains, buoyed by positive corporate news. Notably, General Motors has surged over +12% after revising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate upward. Similarly, RTX Corp has risen by more than +10% following an increase in its full-year adjusted sales estimate. Coca-Cola has also reported a +3% increase after exceeding expectations for Q3 comparable EPS.
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On the downside, mining stocks are facing pressure today, with gold prices dropping over -3% and silver prices falling by more than -5%. Gains in stocks are somewhat limited as they consolidate the sharp increases seen over the past two sessions. The market is closely monitoring progress in US-China trade talks, especially after President Trump reiterated his threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods if a deal is not reached by November 1. A meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for next week during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
In minor US economic news, the October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey has declined by -9.9, reaching a four-month low of -22.2. The ongoing US government shutdown is now in its fourth week, impacting market sentiment and delaying crucial economic reports. This shutdown has resulted in the postponement of several government reports, including weekly initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that the September consumer price report, initially set for release last Wednesday, will now be published this Friday. The White House has cautioned that a prolonged shutdown could lead to widespread layoffs in government programs not aligned with President Trump’s priorities, with Bloomberg Economics estimating that 640,000 federal workers may be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing government shutdown, and concerns about credit quality in the US have triggered a surge in precious metals as a safe haven, with gold and silver reaching new all-time highs last Friday.
This week, the markets will be focused on earnings results as the Q3 earnings season progresses. Rising corporate earnings expectations provide a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far have surpassed forecasts. Additionally, over 22% of S&P 500 companies offering guidance for Q3 earnings are expected to exceed analysts’ expectations, marking the highest rate in a year. However, Q3 profits are anticipated to rise by only +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-over-year from 6.4% in Q2.
The markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29.
Overseas, stock markets are trending higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 has rallied to a new all-time high, up +0.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 also reached a new record high, closing up by +0.27%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) are up +5 ticks, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2.7 basis points to 3.953%. T-note prices are slightly higher today, supported by the ongoing government shutdown, which could lead to job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. T-notes have maintained modest gains following the decline in the October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey.
European government bond yields are also trending lower today, with the 10-year German bund yield down -2.2 basis points to 2.555% and the 10-year UK gilt yield down -3.2 basis points to 4.473%. Swaps are currently discounting a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Movers
General Motors (GM) is leading gainers in the S&P 500, up more than +12% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has also seen a rise of more than +10% after announcing a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. RTX Corp (RTX) is up over +10% following an increase in its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.
Halliburton (HAL) has reported a Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, exceeding the consensus of $5.39 billion, leading to an increase of more than +8%. Danaher (DHR) is also up more than +8% after reporting a Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72. Crown Holdings (CCK) has boosted its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, exceeding the consensus of $7.39, resulting in an increase of more than +4%. Coca-Cola (KO) is up more than +3% after reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, surpassing the consensus of 78 cents. 3M Co (MMM) is also up more than +2% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS for continuing operations to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
Conversely, mining stocks are under pressure today, with gold prices down by more than -3% and silver prices down by more than -5%. Consequently, Newmont (NEM) is down more than -8%, leading the S&P 500 losers. Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are all down more than -3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has seen a significant drop of more than -14% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight, setting a price target of $11. NuScale Power (SMR) is down more than -7% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50. Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -4% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue, as the company anticipates a “modestly negative” Medicaid operating margin for 2025. PulteGroup (PHM) is down more than -3% after reporting a Q3 backlog of home orders that fell -18% year-over-year to 9,888, below the consensus of 9,990.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down more than -1% after reducing its full-year sales forecast to $41.70 billion-$41.90 billion from a previous estimate of $43.05 billion-$42.25 billion, which is weaker than the consensus of $42.22 billion. W R Berkley (WRB) is also down more than -1% after reporting Q3 net premiums written of $3.23 billion, falling short of the consensus of $3.28 billion.
Earnings Reports (10/21/2025)
Upcoming earnings reports include: 3M Co (MMM), Agree Realty Corp (ADC), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Danaher Corp (DHR), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), Matador Resources Co (MTDR), Mattel Inc (MAT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Pentair PLC (PNR), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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