“October’s strength is typically supported by September weakness, where seasonally softer September performance historically improves October’s month-over-month setup,” noted Compass Point analyst Ed Engel in a recent client communication. This seasonal momentum comes at a time when macroeconomic conditions are becoming increasingly challenging, providing additional catalysts for a potential bitcoin rally.
The political landscape has also contributed to this environment. The U.S. government faced a shutdown on Wednesday after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on federal funding. This uncertainty has prompted some traders to turn to bitcoin as a hedge against growing political and economic instability. In response to these developments, the cryptocurrency saw a nearly 3% increase on Wednesday, surpassing $117,000—just a few percentage points shy of its record price achieved in August 2025.
Over the past year, bitcoin has surged more than 90%, largely fueled by former President Donald Trump’s rollback of federal regulations affecting the asset and its industry. If historical trends hold true, bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains this month. However, the bar for achieving substantial month-over-month increases this October may be higher, given the asset’s impressive performance last month.
In September, bitcoin gained 5%, a notable shift from its typical trend of ending the sluggish summer month in the red. This positive momentum sets the stage for what could be a remarkable October, as investors and traders alike keep a close watch on the cryptocurrency’s performance.
