This year, however, the harmony between these indices has faltered. Both peaked together in December 2024 and hit their lows in April 2025. Since then, the narrative has shifted dramatically. While the industrials have thrived post “Liberation Day,” the transports have struggled significantly. Currently, the Dow Transports are down approximately 2.3% year-to-date, a figure that would be even lower without the impressive performances of Avis Budget Group (CAR), which has surged by 90%, and Uber Technologies, which is up 58%. Ongoing tariff uncertainties have created turmoil for airlines, railroads, and trucking companies. Out of the 20 stocks in the TRAN index, only 9 have shown gains this year.
The transport sector’s most affected players include shippers like UPS, FDX, Kirby (KEX), and Matson (MATX), along with truckers such as Old Dominion Freight (ODFL), which is down 22.8%, and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), the focus of our analysis.
Stock/Trade to Watch – J.B. Hunt (JBHT)
J.B. Hunt, based in Arkansas, is set to report its earnings Wednesday afternoon. The stock has declined following five of its last eight earnings reports. When it has risen, the gains have been modest, averaging just over 7.5%, while losses have been more pronounced.
The current strategy appears to be to “fade” the stock. It continues its downward trend, with the 200-day moving average at $148 serving as a potential selling point if shares rally. A turnaround for J.B. Hunt will require time, akin to turning a massive ship. Once it does shift, the journey should be gradual and steady. A retest of the lows around $125 may present a more favorable long-term entry point.
Examining the charts across various time frames reveals a consistent pattern. The one-year daily chart shows that since the summer rally, the stock has been making lower highs and lower lows, struggling to gain traction. A potential re-test of the summer lows around $125 could be the optimal entry point from a risk/reward perspective.
Looking at the five-year weekly chart confirms the strategy of selling at the $148/$150 level, indicating years of overhead supply. Similar patterns are evident in other companies like Old Dominion and Schneider, suggesting that this is not solely a J.B. Hunt issue but a broader sector concern. Long-term charts indicate that the $125 level may indeed be a better entry point for investors willing to hold for an extended period.
While we may be nearing a tradable bottom, these stocks typically require time to recover. The silver lining is that there is significant potential for reversal; however, the path forward remains uncertain. For a trend change to occur, J.B. Hunt will need to clear and maintain levels above $150. More clarity on trade issues could be essential for truckers, including JBHT and the entire transport sector, to finally participate in this bull market—an outcome that would surely please traditional Dow Theorists.
